Rider Type · Data-Derived
Sprinter
High-end power on flat or rolling terrain. Speed over gradient.
Over 11 rides and 109 segment results in 2025, Ashwin Carvalho averaged in the top 65% of the field, with a −3 percentile points from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Over 11 rides and 109 segment results in 2025, Ashwin Carvalho averaged in the top 65% of the field, with a −3 percentile points from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Fatigue Pattern — Field Percentile by Segment Position
Average field percentile per segment slot (lower = better; bar height = how far back)
Opening (S01–S02): top 66% avg →
Late (S07+): top 69% avg ·
Swing: −3 percentile points
Performance by Segment Type
By Distance
<0.4km (n=42 · 331W avg)
Top 64%
0.4–0.8km (n=40 · 293W avg)
Top 67%
>0.8km (n=27 · 260W avg)
Top 66%
By Gradient
<6% flat (n=26 · 292W avg)
Top 63%
6–10% mod (n=52 · 301W avg)
Top 65%
10–13% steep (n=25 · 298W avg)
Top 69%
>13% wall (n=6 · 334W avg)
Top 63%
Effort Profile
Punchy <0.45km ≥9% (n=22)
Top 68%
Threshold ≥0.7km ≥5% (n=23)
Top 69%
Peak Performances — Best 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/59 | St. Francis to La Cresta | 0.49 km | 6.9% |
| 23/58 | Purissima — Arastradero to Viscaino | 1.11 km | 2.0% |
| 30/72 | Willowbrook | 1.29 km | 2.1% |
| 25/59 | Viscaino West Side | 0.37 km | 12.5% |
| 26/59 | The Best Part of Purissima | 0.64 km | 1.9% |
Toughest Moments — Worst 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82/87 | Camino Hermosa (Egan Official) to Magdalena | 0.62 km | 9.4% |
| 81/86 | Dawson Road Wall | 0.34 km | 12.0% |
| 78/84 | Deodara, Vineyard to the end | 0.36 km | 5.4% |
| 79/85 | Arboretum Drive | 0.55 km | 8.7% |
| 50/54 | H2N: Maria Ln | 0.38 km | 13.4% |
What the Data Suggests
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Strengths to Protect
High-end speed on flat and rolling terrain. Short explosive efforts when the gradient stays low — that's the ceiling. Top 66% when fresh on opening segments. Fast-twitch recruitment is the edge — don't grind it away with long endurance blocks.
🎯
Development Area
Sustained climbing — the 6-point gap between flat (top 63%) and steep (top 69%) performance is the main story. Threshold climbing work (sweet-spot on 6–10% gradients) would open up more of the Egan route catalog. Target rides with longer sustained pitches to build climbing-specific endurance.
📊
The Real Enemy
Gradient. Once the road tips up beyond 8%, the advantage erodes fast. Watts short vs long: 331W → 260W shows the pattern. Egan routes are climb-heavy, so working on climbing-specific power is the highest-leverage investment.