Rider Type · Data-Derived
Sprinter
High-end power on flat or rolling terrain. Speed over gradient.
Over 16 rides and 152 segment results in 2025, Cesar Ajuria averaged in the top 86% of the field, with a +2 percentile points (improves!) from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Over 16 rides and 152 segment results in 2025, Cesar Ajuria averaged in the top 86% of the field, with a +2 percentile points (improves!) from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Fatigue Pattern — Field Percentile by Segment Position
Average field percentile per segment slot (lower = better; bar height = how far back)
Opening (S01–S02): top 88% avg →
Late (S07+): top 86% avg ·
Swing: +2 percentile points (improves!)
Performance by Segment Type
By Distance
<0.4km (n=71 · 301W avg)
Top 86%
0.4–0.8km (n=50 · 268W avg)
Top 86%
>0.8km (n=31 · 230W avg)
Top 87%
By Gradient
<6% flat (n=24 · 274W avg)
Top 81%
6–10% mod (n=74 · 268W avg)
Top 87%
10–13% steep (n=43 · 277W avg)
Top 88%
>13% wall (n=11 · 301W avg)
Top 86%
Effort Profile
Punchy <0.45km ≥9% (n=43)
Top 88%
Threshold ≥0.7km ≥5% (n=32)
Top 87%
Peak Performances — Best 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55/87 | Elena Rd to Natoma | 0.82 km | 6.7% |
| 51/79 | Ascenscion + Anacapa | 0.85 km | 9.4% |
| 38/58 | Altamont [WB] - Natoma to Almaden Court | 0.39 km | 5.4% |
| 51/77 | Dirk's super short hill sprint | 0.18 km | 5.2% |
| 61/88 | La Barranca Rd | 0.22 km | 7.7% |
Toughest Moments — Worst 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59/59 | Quail Beotch | 0.24 km | 10.6% |
| 73/74 | Anacapa - Sir Francis to La Cresta | 0.92 km | 9.1% |
| 69/70 | Plateau Ave Climb | 0.31 km | 8.7% |
| 84/86 | Dawson Road Wall | 0.34 km | 12.0% |
| 75/77 | Stonebrook from Priscilla | 0.42 km | 8.0% |
What the Data Suggests
💪
Strengths to Protect
High-end speed on flat and rolling terrain. Short explosive efforts when the gradient stays low — that's the ceiling. Top 88% when fresh on opening segments. Fast-twitch recruitment is the edge — don't grind it away with long endurance blocks.
🎯
Development Area
Sustained climbing — the 7-point gap between flat (top 81%) and steep (top 88%) performance is the main story. Threshold climbing work (sweet-spot on 6–10% gradients) would open up more of the Egan route catalog. Target rides with longer sustained pitches to build climbing-specific endurance.
📊
The Real Enemy
Gradient. Once the road tips up beyond 8%, the advantage erodes fast. Watts short vs long: 301W → 230W shows the pattern. Egan routes are climb-heavy, so working on climbing-specific power is the highest-leverage investment.