Rider Type · Data-Derived
Puncheur
Explosive on short steep efforts, strongest when fresh. Power drops with fatigue.
Over 11 rides and 113 segment results in 2025, John van Breemen averaged in the top 76% of the field, with a +0 percentile points (improves!) from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Over 11 rides and 113 segment results in 2025, John van Breemen averaged in the top 76% of the field, with a +0 percentile points (improves!) from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Fatigue Pattern — Field Percentile by Segment Position
Average field percentile per segment slot (lower = better; bar height = how far back)
Opening (S01–S02): top 75% avg →
Late (S07+): top 75% avg ·
Swing: +0 percentile points (improves!)
Performance by Segment Type
By Distance
<0.4km (n=49 · 320W avg)
Top 76%
0.4–0.8km (n=40 · 290W avg)
Top 73%
>0.8km (n=24 · 249W avg)
Top 79%
By Gradient
<6% flat (n=22 · 285W avg)
Top 77%
6–10% mod (n=52 · 288W avg)
Top 75%
10–13% steep (n=32 · 308W avg)
Top 76%
>13% wall (n=6 · 318W avg)
Top 76%
Effort Profile
Punchy <0.45km ≥9% (n=33)
Top 75%
Threshold ≥0.7km ≥5% (n=24)
Top 79%
Peak Performances — Best 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45/84 | Deodara, Vineyard to the end | 0.36 km | 5.4% |
| 38/70 | Foothill Lane (no sign on Elena) | 0.31 km | 8.7% |
| 42/71 | Paseo Del Roble (Egan Official) Mir Mirou to Roble | 0.46 km | 6.6% |
| 41/69 | Deerfield Drive up | 0.24 km | 9.1% |
| 54/90 | Summerhill / Rockpoint | 0.36 km | 8.4% |
Toughest Moments — Worst 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57/62 | Altamont - Stop Sign to Crest | 1.73 km | 6.7% |
| 78/85 | Valley View from Border | 0.31 km | 8.1% |
| 78/85 | Hilltop Drive | 0.85 km | 4.4% |
| 62/68 | Deerfield Drive up | 0.24 km | 9.1% |
| 50/55 | Alexis_to_Country_Club_KOM | 0.79 km | 7.3% |
What the Data Suggests
💪
Strengths to Protect
Explosive anaerobic power on short steep climbs. Opening-segment aggression (top 75% on S1–S2). Wall-gradient efforts where torque beats sustained output. Don't over-train aerobic base at the expense of peak power — that edge is real.
🎯
Development Area
Aerobic threshold and repeatability — the gap between S1 (top 75%) and S7+ (top 75%) is 0 percentile points. Even closing that to 5 points would be transformative on long-format rides. Target: 2×20 threshold work and back-to-back climbing days to build the aerobic floor.
📊
The Real Enemy
Fatigue, not segment type. Power drops 22% from short to long segments (320W → 249W). The issue is power-at-fatigue (FTP relative to peak power) — on a fresh day the ceiling is genuinely high.